Tuesday, September 2, 2008
- A look back to the 2007-08 season -
Okay, so one of the things that all armchair GMs like to do, is give their predictions as to how their team is going to do. I have seen some bloggers out there who were handing out not only team predictions, but player predictions as well as early as mid-July. I find this a bit, to put it bluntly, silly. I do not think there is a single team out there who does not have some questions regarding their lineup. Furthermore, with stars like Sundin, Sakic (recently signed), and Shanahan still unsigned, I find it hard to judge how any particular team is going to do - especially when one considers how many players and teams futures depend on the Sundin decision.
For the Oilers it's a little bit more understandable, as the only real big questions we have are Schremp, Brule, or Pouliot? As well as who plays LW on the first line? Cole or Penner? I am not going to give my prediction for at another month or so - until training camps are under way and we have a rough idea of who will be playing where.
I will however man-up and go over my prediction for last year. I made my prediction for last year on October 4th – at a point in time when there were still questions about the Oilers lineup. Unfortunately I was away in Kenya from January until June of 2008, so I missed just under half the season. However, I think I can still make a good analysis of last season’s predictions. I will split up this post into two posts over a couple of days, so stay tuned for part 2!
Without further ado, here we go! My October 4th prediction is in red while my analysis of my prediction follows.
Part 1
With (Moreau) back and healthy, our penalty killing should be top 5 – We finished 5th, even without him for most of the season.
The powerplay will rise from 27th, to at least 14th - We ended the season Tied for 20th, which was decent considering we were missing our number 1 center, and our PP quarterback, as well as one of our top 6 forwards.
Penner is a giant. He should be able to score 15-20 goals on the PP this season. – Well he is a giant (although hopefully not as big of a giant as the 240 pound behemoth that came to camp last year), and he ended up scoring 13 goals on the PP – which again, I think was decent considering Horcs and Souray were both out for a vast portion of the season. He scored 8 goals in the 53 games before Horc got injured, and then 5 in 29 games after Horc left. That means he went from scoring .15 PPG / G to .17 PPG / G. However, you have to realize that he didn’t score his first PPG until November 5th – 15 games into the season – a point at which the Oilers were 5-10. If you look from November 5th – January 29th (Horcs last game) Penner was scoring at a .20 PPG / G clip.
Stoll working the high half boards, and low point position will be unleashing a tonne of bombs. Expect him to get the majority of his points on the PP.
I don’t think anyone would have predicted how poorly Stolli played last season. The poor guy just couldn’t seem to get his timing right after those knocks to the head. In the end he ended up scoring 21/36 points (58%) on the PP.
I fully believe that the Oilers total travel miles are in the top 5 for the league.
I argued that part of the Oilers troubles in 06-07 were the short season, combined with high travel. Last season we travelled the second most out of all the teams in the NHL. This year we’re travelling 6th most.
I expect career-ish years out of Horcoff (70-75 points), and Hemsky (85+ points).
Well Horcoff scored 50 points in 53 games, which would have translated to 77 if he’d played a full 82 game sched. Hemsky scored 71 points in 74 games. I think its safe to assume he would have reached 80 had Horcs been in the lineup – and if his wrist hadn’t caused him problems - so overall I think I did pretty decently.
I think Stoll will win over 1000 (he actually won 677) face-offs this year, and score 20 goals (he actually scored 14)
As noted before, Stolli had a terrible season. He only won 677 face-offs (despite winning 501 playing 51 games in 06-07), and scored 14 goals (despite scoring 13 the year before).
I think barring something like 8 points in 9 games, Gagne will be sent back to London for his final year of Junior.
Well, in the first 8 games he had 7 points, and the rest is history.
I think Cogliano will stay with the team the whole year.
There were considerable questions about this at the beginning of last season.
I don't think Jacques or Pouliot will make a very big impact.
Pouliot started to come around with 7 points in 15 games to close out the season, but so far neither of these two has impressed. (And to think Corey Perry got drafted 3 spots lower than Pouliot in the same year…)
I will post Part 2 later. Stay tuned!
Addicted-to-oil
at 12:57 PM.
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Please put your pencils down now.
Sit quietly with your test booklets closed while I come around to collect them.