Wednesday, September 3, 2008
- Hemsky! -
Today’s post is going to be all about Ales. Here’s what a couple of other Oiler bloggers have said about Hemmer this summer:
One blogger pegs Hemsky to score 26-67 for 93 points saying “this should be Ales Hemsky’s breakout year.”
Another blogger has Hemmer scoring 30-64 for 94 points, saying “Hemsky is that good. I'm of the opinion that Ales Hemsky is an elite player in this league. He is without a doubt a top 10 RW, and I think he's going to get the bounces this year, finish in the top 5 in his position for scoring, and finally be considered just as good as he is - because right now he very well could be the most underrated player in the league.”
First off, haven’t the last two years supposedly been the years Hemmer would “breakout”? Secondly can we expect a guy who has only scored 20+ goals once in 4 years to jump up to 30? Is Hemsky really a top 10 RW in the league? Can he finish top 5 in scoring for RW’s this year? Is he the most underrated player in the league?
Are these things true, or are they the musings of a couple of over zealous Oilers fans?
Let’s take a look and see.
Is Hemsky a top 10 RW in the league?
Last season:
He was tied for 10th in the league in RW scoring.
He was tied for 3rd in the league in RW assists.
He was 8th in the league among RW for P/G.
He played the fewest minutes out of all the other top 10 RW’s – by a lot.
He averaged 19.35 minutes for each point he scored – only 4 other RW’s were more efficient with their ice time in terms of scoring.
The average age for the other top 10 RW’s is 30.1 – Hemsky just turned 25 – Only one player (Kane) in the top 10 is younger than Hemsky.
He had the 9th best shooting % out of the other 10 players.
In my mind I think this shows he is one of the 10 best RW’s in the game right now – not just in terms of points.
Can he finish top 5 in scoring for RW’s this year?
Here are arguably some of the best RW’s in the league:
Iginla / Alfredsson / Kovalev / Gaborik / St. Louis / Pominville / Doan / Dumont / Kane / Jagr / Hossa / Boyes / Sykora / Sharp / Horton / Zherdev / Rolston / Radulov / Erat / Selanne / Lupul / Willaims / Perry
For him to be in the top 5 in scoring, he would have to beat some pretty impressive company. He’s got a slim chance to score in the top 5 this year, but I definitely would not say he’s a top 5 RW in the league – yet. There’s more to a player’s worth than just his point total, and he needs one more solid year to join the ranks of an Iginla, St. Louis, Alfredsson, Gaborik, Pominville, Kane, Hossa, and even someone like Boyes (who I’d likely rank higher than Hemmer).
Can he break 90 points on the season?
For him to score 93 points (in what I’m guessing the two bloggers assumed would be a full 82 game season) he would have to score 1.13 points per game. In the last 4 years he has only averaged 72.5 games. Even if he did play all 82 games - in the last 3 years only 13 times has a RW averaged 1.13 P/G or more. However, I think it would be overly optimistic to expect him to play all 82 games. Lets say he plays a realistic 77. That would mean he would need to score at a 1.20 P/G clip. In the last 3 years a RW has only scored 1.20 P/G or higher 6 times.
Not impossible, but it seems very difficult to do.
However, Hemsky does have the best supporting cast this year than he ever has in his career, and from all reports, he’s been working out a lot harder this off season. So can he score 93 or 94 points? I don’t think so. I think he’ll place around 7th or 8th, for total league RW scoring, while scoring at more than a point per game this season – just not 1.13 or 1.20. I’m thinking more around 1.08-1.11 (88-91 points based on an 82 game season). I think this will be attributed to a much better powerplay, and I hope he will also see an increase in his playing time. I’d love to see him average over 20 minutes a game.
Is Hemsky the most underrated player in the league?
I think this one is an easy one to quash. No, he clearly is not. The amount of attention he gets on the ice from the opposition’s best players shows that. Check out Behind The Net’s Quality of Competition for more. Here’s a couple of players who are (IMO) more underrated than Hemmer:
Brad Boyes – Here’s a kid who scored 26 goals as a rookie a few years back, had an off year during which he was traded, and then rebounded with a 43 goal performance on the lowly St. Louis Blues last season – good enough for 6th in the league, and 2nd amongst RWs. He also had a blistering 20.8 shooting percentage which was good enough for 2nd in the entire league (Interestingly enough, Cogliano and Horcoff were 6th and 7th in the league for shooting percentage).
Dustin Brown – This guy is a tank. 33 goals last season with the even-worse-than-the-Blues - La Kings. Not only that, but this kid led the leagues in hits with 311!
Marc Savard – Since the lockout he’s averaged over 68 assists and 21 goals per season – playing on teams like the Thrashers and Bruins. Hemsky’s averaged 49.6 assists and 17 goals during that same span.
So, overall I wouldn’t call Hemsky an ‘elite’ player in the league…yet. I do however agree with the two bloggers when I think this will be Hemmer’s best year. I think all the pieces are there, and as long as he stays healthy (75+ games) he will score at over a point a game. Will he be able to make that jump to an ‘elite’ player? I sure hope so, but I think he’s got another year to go to be considered a perennial All-Star. For me, an “elite” player in the league is in the top 5 for his position – and Hemsky clearly is not there yet, nor does it look like he will be next year, unless he has a massive 25+ point jump. You also don’t become an ‘elite’ player in the NHL for having a few decent seasons where you’re in the top 15 for your position, and top 50 overall. He needs to show the consistency of an Iginla, Alfredsson, St. Louis, or Doan to be considered elite.
EDIT:
I worked on most of my posts during the summer, so that I could have a decent run-up of hockey related posts going into the season, and not have to resort to random posts about the Olympics or other stuff, like some of the bloggers out there. Well, one day after I wrote this about Hemsky, THN released their top 50 list of players in the NHL for this season and Hemsky ranked 33. Hardly an elite rating – especially considering a lot of people thought he should be lower. In terms or RW’s he was ranked behind Iginla, Alfredsson, Gaborik, Hossa, and St-Louis. I would still rank Kane ahead of Hemsky – based solely on the fact that Kane’s rookie season would equate to Hemsky’s second best season ever.
Also, I checked out an article on NHL.com listing the East and West's elite scorers, and he was nowhere to be found - granted they were looking more at goal scorers and not playmakers - and Hemmer's stats definitely put him in the latter category